America’s Unexpected Economy: GDP Growth, Inflation, and Rate Hikes in the Fourth Quarter of 2024

In the fourth quarter of 2024, the United States economy grew more than expected, with an annualized 3.4% expansion, according to the latest GDP data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This slight increase from previous estimates was primarily driven by upward revisions to consumer spending and nonresidential fixed investment, although private inventory investment saw a downward revision.

Despite the 3.3% growth in the last three months of 2024, the pace was slower compared to the 4.9% growth seen in the previous quarter. This deceleration was attributed to a downturn in private inventory investment, federal government spending, residential fixed investment, and imports. Amid concerns of inflation, higher borrowing costs, and recession fears, Chief Economist Bill Adams stated that the economy remains strong and more stable compared to the pandemic period.

While the recent report is positive news for the economy, it may lead the Federal Reserve to maintain higher interest rates for a longer period. Fed Chair Jerome Powell has emphasized the need to evaluate incoming data before considering rate adjustments. With data already showing increased inflation in January and February 2025, solid growth in Q4 complicates the Fed’s decision-making process and raises the likelihood of further rate hikes.

The potential for additional rate hikes could pose challenges for larger banks and nonbank lenders, especially those with pending commercial real estate loan losses. The increasing complexity in the economic landscape underscores