• Tue. Dec 5th, 2023

Economic Forecasts in Flux as US Treasury Yields Volatility Continues


Nov 20, 2023

The U.S. Treasury yields experienced a slight increase on Monday as investors evaluated the economic outlook and considered the likelihood that the Federal Reserve’s interest-rate hiking cycle had come to an end. At 3:31 a.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was over three basis points higher, standing at 4.4764%. Two days earlier, it had briefly reached a low not seen since September at 4.379%. The 2-year Treasury yield also rose by less than one basis point, reaching 4.9151%.

It is crucial to understand that yields and prices move in opposite directions, with one basis point equivalent to 0.01%. Investors are considering factors such as the economy and Federal Reserve monetary policy when evaluating bond investments. Growing hopes have emerged that the central bank is finished with interest rate hikes following lower-than-expected readings for both the producer and consumer price index. These lower readings suggest that inflation is easing and the Fed’s interest rate hikes are effectively cooling the economy. There is widespread expectation among markets that interest rates will remain unchanged at the Fed’s last meeting in December. However, investors are pondering when the Fed might begin to cut rates, though Fed officials have not addressed this in detail yet. Data from the Fed’s last meeting will be released on Tuesday, which could provide insight into the central bank’s considerations and expectations for future monetary policy decisions.

In other news, no key data is expected on Monday; however, it is worth noting that bond markets will be closed on Thursday and will close early on Friday for Thanksgiving Day celebrations across North America.

Overall, it seems like investors are cautiously optimistic about future economic conditions and hopeful that inflationary pressures may ease as a result of more accommodative monetary policy measures from central banks around the world.

In conclusion, while U.S Treasury yields experienced a slight increase on Monday morning due to shifting investor sentiment towards an easier monetary policy environment, there remains uncertainty around how long this trend will continue and whether or not we can expect more significant rate cuts in the near future.

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