The Index of Leading Economic Indicators, a tool meant to give insight into the economy’s direction, fell in October. The Conference Board, which publishes the index, has stated that this decline may indicate a recession on the horizon. However, despite falling for 19 months without a recession occurring, economists are adjusting their forecasts.
Earlier this year, The Conference Board predicted a recession by now. According to Justyna Zabinska-La Monica at The Conference Board, one reason we’re not currently in a recession is due to stronger-than-expected consumer spending. While Zabinska-La Monica still predicts a recession early next year, it’s expected to be short if it happens because there hasn’t been a significant decline in manufacturing or the housing market yet.
U.S. economist Matthew Martin at Oxford Economics no longer predicts a recession for this month. He believes unemployment will increase and labor conditions will soften but expects a soft landing instead of a hard one. Martin added he is open to updating his forecasts if economic data continues to surprise him.
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