Ruchir Sharma has rightly punctured dreams of a sustained reopening boom in China (Opinion, May possibly 21). Certainly, old China hands see its economy as a distant (but far bigger) echo of Japan’s at its 1990 peak, and for the similar factors — weakening demographics and as well considerably debt fuelling as well considerably investment, in Japan’s case corporate investment, in China’s case infrastructure and residential house.
China is also experiencing the similar US protectionist backlash as Japan did then. This time, although, a sluggish Chinese economy could have far more severe worldwide ramifications, and not just in terms of weakening demand for raw supplies such as iron ore and copper. Germany, which lengthy ago hitched its wagon to China’s star, and benefited hugely from exports of vehicles and machinery could now endure from China’s drive for self-sufficiency. Its automobile exports to China are falling, even though Chinese brands are squeezing out German tends to make domestically and are poised to invade the EU industry.
And what are Chinese domestic investors undertaking — getting gold at a premium to planet costs. Not a sign of self-confidence in their personal economy.
London KT1, UK