Croatia is just three points away from finishing 13th out of a possible 15 major competitions since independence. The next draw for additional qualifications on Thursday will determine the final fate of their Euros hopes. Wales needs to draw with Turkey to secure a point that will make them qualify for the tournament, but if Turkey wins, they will be eliminated. However, this match is not just about placement but also the final tournament draw.
The Euros are still in question for Croatia, as there are several unknowns before the draw. Uefa ranks national teams based on their performance in the qualifications, and Croatia would be in the third strongest group if qualifications ended today. This group includes Scotland and Slovakia, and possibly the Netherlands and Serbia. If Croatia wins over Armenia, they will stay in this group, but if they lose or draw, they risk ending up in the fourth round with a more difficult draw.
Serbia is also facing a difficult situation as they could fall into the last round if at least two of three scenarios happen: Slovenia wins over Kazakhstan, the Czech Republic wins over Moldova and Croatia wins over Armenia. These indirectly push their neighbors towards a more challenging draw.
Twelve national teams are fighting for the remaining three places in the final draw through three mini-tournaments at the next meeting in March. Poland from League A is safe there along with Israel and BiH from League B and Georgia, Greece and Luxembourg from League C. If qualifications end now, play-off pairs would be Poland – Estonia (from League D) and Wales – Finland/Iceland/Ukraine with winners playing for the Euros in the second part of