• Wed. Jun 7th, 2023

The two Massive Extended-Term Dangers Facing Markets and the Economy: Bank of America


May 26, 2023
  • Investors should not be so down on corporate earnings as 1st-quarter benefits handily beat estimates, BofA stated.
  • BofA raised its 2023 S&ampP 500 EPS forecast by eight% and introduced a new 2024 forecast that suggests 9% development.
  • But there are two looming dangers that could eventually rattle the economy and the stock marketplace.

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1st-quarter earnings benefits are in, and they are a lot greater than Wall Street analysts anticipated.

Bank of America’s Ohsung Kwon stated in a Thursday note that corporate America’s potential to speedily adapt to a volatile macro atmosphere signifies investors should not be so unfavorable on the economy provided that earnings benefits beat estimates by five% as corporations start to concentrate on productivity and efficiency gains.

“A sturdy 1st-quarter as soon as once more showed corporate America’s potential to preserve margins,” Kwon stated, highlighting the reality that inflation pressures are easing while pricing power remains on solid footing.

The bank upgraded its S&ampP 500 2023 earnings per share estimate to $215 from $200 due to the 1st-quarter earnings strength, representing an improve of eight%. In addition, Kwon introduced the bank’s 2024 S&ampP 500 EPS estimate at $235, which would represent annual development of 9%.

“Earnings usually recover stronger than they fall and we count on 2024 to be a greater profit atmosphere immediately after companies’ concentrate on efficiency and productivity,” Kwon stated, adding that a weaker US dollar could also assistance enhance profit development subsequent year.

S&P 500 EPS

Bank of America

Added upside drivers to corporate earnings, the economy, and the stock marketplace include things like a new capital expenditure cycle that leads to significant investments from corporations, with an estimated $600 billion in mega projects becoming announced due to the fact January 2021, according to the note.

Whilst the capital expenditure boom is becoming driven by reshoring efforts, in which corporations bring some or all of their production and sourcing capabilities back into America, some is also becoming driven by more than $550 billion in fiscal stimulus that stems from the bipartisan infrastructure bill. 

These components pale in comparison to the key aspect that helped enhance corporate earnings more than the previous decade: economic engineering in the type of stock buybacks.

“We count on productivity-led earnings development ahead, rather than financially engineered development from the final decade,” Kwon stated.

But there are nonetheless two significant, extended-term dangers that could negatively effect the economy and stock marketplace, according to Kwon.

These dangers are the increasing trend of de-globalization and refinancing dangers due to greater interest prices.

“We are coming out of the finest 20-year period for earnings development, which started with China joining the WTO in 2001. De-globalization is a significant secular danger, which drove most of the margin improvement more than the previous 20 years,” Kwon explained.

And even though about 75% of corporate America’s present debt burden is fixed at historically low interest prices, greater interest prices could nonetheless be a headwind for particular sectors, like True Estate and Industrials, if the Federal Reserve does not reduce prices in the foreseeable future.

And current FOMC minutes from the Fed recommend a lot desires to occur for interest prices to be reduce anytime quickly.

Interest rates

Bank of America

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