In the latter half of 2023, official figures confirmed that Britain had fallen into a recession. The Office for National Statistics reported that GDP declined by 0.1% in the third quarter and by 0.3% in the fourth quarter, matching preliminary estimates previously reported. Despite some improvement at the beginning of 2024, with GDP growing by 0.2% in January and continued growth reported in February and March according to unofficial surveys, Britain’s economy is only 1% larger than it was in late 2019, making it the slowest recovery among G7 nations except for Germany.

The Bank of England has indicated that British inflation is nearing a level where they can begin reducing interest rates. The Bank expects the economy to grow by just 0.25% this year, while official budget forecasters are more optimistic, expecting a 0.8% expansion in the economy. Following the release of this data, the value of sterling against the U.S. dollar and euro remained relatively stable.