Earth’s largest concentration of meteorites can be found in Antarctica, with over 60 percent of meteorite finds originating there. However, global warming is threatening the continent’s meteorites. A new analysis predicts that by the end of the century, close to three-quarters of Antarctica’s meteorites could vanish from the ice sheet surface. This would make it difficult to locate and retrieve these valuable space rocks.

The research, published in Nature Climate Change, used a machine-learning algorithm to forecast how Antarctic meteorites will be affected by simulated climate conditions. These meteorites accumulated in stranding zones on the continent thousands of years ago and are now embedded in the ice. They are commonly found in “blue ice” areas, where wind uncovers older ice that appears blue against the white landscape.

Meteorites are highly sensitive to temperature, and exposure to sunlight can cause their dark surface to warm up, melting the ice beneath them and causing them to sink below the surface. The researchers project that under all emissions scenarios, at least 5,000 meteorites will disappear annually. With every tenth of a degree of temperature increase, the loss of meteorites could range from 5,100 to 12,200, and under a high-emissions scenario, 76 percent of the areas currently covered by meteorites could be lost.

The potential loss of meteorites would be devastating for space scientists as these rocks contain valuable information about the development of our solar system. Dating back billions of years, meteorites offer insights into stars, planetary formation, and even Earth’s geological history. The researchers emphasize the importance of collecting as many meteorite specimens as possible before they become inaccessible to science.

Glaciologist Harry Zekollari who led the research at ETH Zurich’s department of civil